Miranda Maverick (-300) vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius (+235)
Women's Flyweight (125 pounds)
| Fighter | FanDuel
Salary | Height | Reach | Striking
Success
Rate (SSR) | FanDuel
Points Per Minute
(excl. bonuses) |
|---|
| Miranda Maverick | $22 | 5' 3" | 65" | 1.21 | 3.46 |
| Jasmine Jasudavicius | $8 | 5' 7" | 68" | -0.93 | 2.75 |
After losing to other 20-somethings in consecutive fights, the
Miranda Maverick rebuilding era continues in earnest here.
Maverick's setbacks to Maycee Barber and Erin Blanchfield -- both top-10 flyweights -- didn't really merit the precipitous drop in the quality of competition that she's seen. Maverick ragdolled Sabina Mazo and Shanna Young in the proceeding fights, and I don't see any difference here.
Maverick's +1.21 SSR indicates where I think she would benefit from keeping this fight.
Jasmine Jasudavicius had a -65 striking differential in her one fight where Natalia Silva resigned her to distance, and Maverick's UFC debut was a first-round doctor's stoppage in a striking match.
Things could get mildly interesting if Jasudavicius, averaging north of two takedowns per 15 minutes, is able to exploit Maverick's poor 44% takedown defense, but other than Blanchfield, all others are 3-for-10 on takedown attempts. I'm not optimistic.
Jasudavicius' wins over Kay Hansen (1-3 UFC) and Gabriella Fernandes (0-1 UFC) aren't that impressive when Maverick has finished three other UFC winners. This fight should look about as close as Jas' fight with Silva did.
Betting Verdict: Like Bilder, I actually see value up to -500 with Maverick here. Her experience is a reason to be more confident. Also like him, parlays or an inside-the-distance prop (+260) could circumvent the price in a fight I believe she dominates.
DFS Verdict: Maverick ($22) might go overlooked with this one -320 to go the full distance, but I will buy that dip in popularity. Jas' toughest test to date could produce a gigantic FanDuel score.
Nassourdine Imavov (-154) vs. Chris Curtis (+126)
Middleweight (185 pounds)
| Fighter | FanDuel
Salary | Height | Reach | Striking
Success
Rate (SSR) | FanDuel
Points Per Minute
(excl. bonuses) |
|---|
| Nassourdine Imavov | $17 | 6' 3" | 75" | 0.51 | 3.43 |
| Chris Curtis | $13 | 5' 10" | 75" | -0.63 | 3.35 |
I have been truly back and forth on this fight all week, and I still don't like my answer. If
Chris Curtis would fight using a different style, I would.
Curtis' primary training partner (and
podcast co-host) is Sean Strickland, and it looks like it by the way Curtis continues to fight in UFC. His striking accuracy (50%) and striking defense (55%) are too good for the negative SSR he has, but it's because he's constantly watching and intaking information like the high-volume Strickland would provide.
The problem is most middleweights don't fight like Sean, including
Nassourdine Imavov. Strickland's pace and pressure scored a lopsided win over Imavov in January on one week's notice, but Curtis is absolutely a different matchup.
Imavov's accuracy (51%) and defense (59%) on the feet are better, and he's got a huge effective reach difference behind the height here.
I was looking to fade Curtis in this spot initially based on how he fared against the long, rangy Jack Hermansson, but Imavov's resumé is extremely poor the deeper you dig. Imavov's best win was a fight against Joaquin Buckley where he was hanging on for dear life in the final round.
If Curtis' 100% takedown defense stays at a perfect level, I expect his much better gas tank to continue to punish Imavov as this fight wanes. If there's a finish here, I believe it'll be him.
Betting Verdict: FanDuel Sportsbook's "decision no bet" market for this fight is my preferred way to back Curtis. He's -112 there, and if a slow start leads to a loss on the cards, this bet is void. Curtis by R3 KO/TKO (+3000) is an interesting lottery ticket the way Imavov, who cuts a lot of weight, tends to fade.
DFS Verdict: I don't see the upside for Imavov at $17 when Curtis has never been finished in UFC by harder hitters. Imavov has a 0% knockdown rate, too. I'll default to Chris at $13 as a potential value plug.
Marc-Andre Barriault (-134) vs. Eryk Anders (+110)
Middleweight (185 pounds)
| Fighter | FanDuel
Salary | Height | Reach | Striking
Success
Rate (SSR) | FanDuel
Points Per Minute
(excl. bonuses) |
|---|
| Marc-Andre Barriault | $16 | 6' 1" | 74" | 0.72 | 3.69 |
| Eryk Anders | $14 | 6' 1" | 75" | -0.83 | 2.70 |
The striking-focused stats aren't going to shine on
Eryk Anders, but he's a short 'dog here for a reason.
Anders' 1.15% knockdown rate can be a great equalizer, and he's got
some of what has given
Marc-Andre Barriault fits. Anders averages 1.59 takedowns per 15 minutes, and Barriault has ceded 17 of his last 33 takedown attempts faced with a 62% takedown D overall.
Barriault's cardio might be a touch overrated, but his pace (5.90 significant strikes per minute) is abnormally high at middleweight, so he can melt guys that lack wrestling to take him down. He did just that to Julian Marquez earlier this year.
Just 13 months ago, Anders and Junyong Park battled to a tight split decision. Many
scored it for "Ya Boi" Anders. Park ran through Marc-Andre in an easy decision, amassing five takedowns. I think there's a gap in their previous competition that explains this shorter-than-expected number.
This fight is also -136 to go the distance with two guys who love to work against the cage. It might be a good opportunity to walk the dog.
Betting Verdict: I've laid a unit on Anders' ML (+110). It's a side I don't many feel will be taking in Canada, but the more you dig into Barriault's resume and grappling skillset, the less it impresses. Plus, Anders has been working in that exact department.
DFS Verdict: This could be one to avoid overall in DFS the way it's projected to grind on the fence, but Anders' lower salary ($14) doesn't make him a horrible option to mix in with other favorites.
Dan Ige (-260) vs. Nate Landwehr (+205)
Featherweight (145 pounds)
| Fighter | FanDuel
Salary | Height | Reach | Striking
Success
Rate (SSR) | FanDuel
Points Per Minute
(excl. bonuses) |
|---|
| Dan Ige | $20 | 5' 7" | 71" | 0.22 | 2.88 |
| Nate Landwehr | $10 | 5' 9" | 72" | 0.96 | 4.89 |
This is a massive step toward the top for
Nate Landwehr.
"Nate the Train" is a post-fight hoot at the microphone, but the majority of his recent triumphs have been inexperienced foes. In fact, none of the three who have been defeated on his streak had more than three UFC fights before facing Landwehr.
Dan Ige has been around the block.
While never being finished with the promotion, four of the five losses in "50K" Ige's career have come to fighters currently ranked in the division's top 10. All five who beat him have at least six UFC wins. Landwehr would be the least accomplished winner to date.
Ige's 57% striking defense -- tested at a championship level -- is tremendous. The drama in this fight will be if Landwehr is willing to pull a wrestling-heavy approach and potentially exploit Ige's 52% takedown defense. He's allowed 13 in the five losses.
At 2.19 takedowns attempted per 15, Landwehr has never really committed to that approach. It's a changeup from his brawling striking style -- one I think could get him planted here.
Betting Verdict: I've bet a unit on over 2.5 rounds (-108) in this one with two excellent striking defenses, but Landwehr is the one that has shown some first-round susceptibility before. That's another reason I'm right in line with Ige's -260 ML.
DFS Verdict: Ige at $20 is an MVP candidate given Landwehr should bring the pace to him, and his durability has stood impeccable against better foes. You could potentially target Landwehr ($10) for volume in spots, but I am worried about a swift knockout.
Mike Malott (-215) vs. Adam Fugitt (+172)
Welterweight (170 pounds)
| Fighter | FanDuel
Salary | Height | Reach | Striking
Success
Rate (SSR) | FanDuel
Points Per Minute
(excl. bonuses) |
|---|
| Mike Malott | $19 | 6' 1" | 73" | 1.01 | 3.89 |
| Adam Fugitt | $12 | 6' 1" | 77" | -0.50 | 5.14 |
Here we go counting out
Adam Fugitt again.
Fugitt was a +250 underdog to Japan's version of Conor McGregor, Yusaku Kinoshita, in February and stopped him in the first round. He was a +500 underdog on short notice to the stellar Michael Morales and made it to the third round. He's now seen as fodder for Canada's
Mike Malott, and I just don't see it that way.
Malott's profile is underwhelming considering the results in UFC thus far -- two quick ones. It's because he was hurt early in both fights, and he's yet to face a UFC takedown attempt. Fugitt (4.76 takedowns per 15) got Morales down, so he should have data there by the end of Saturday.
Importantly, Malott's last and only fight outside the first round came in 2015 as a draw. If Fugitt survives the early storm as he did against both Kinoshita and Morales, he'll be in a great position to take the Canadian into deep waters.
It's a bit unnerving to pick against the card's most popular hometown guy, but Fugitt has defied the odds in both fights already.
Betting Verdict: I've laid a unit on Fugitt's ML, but his number is especially attractive for winning in Round 2 (+1100) or Round 3 (+1500) given that's where the odds swing heavily in his favor.
DFS Verdict: Malott, with two first-round wins in the bank, should be popular, but I'm riding the 'dog here, too. Fugitt's $12 salary isn't low enough to command great attention as a +172 underdog, either.
Beneil Dariush (-152) vs. Charles Oliveira (+124)
Lightweight (155 pounds)
| Fighter | FanDuel
Salary | Height | Reach | Striking
Success
Rate (SSR) | FanDuel
Points Per Minute
(excl. bonuses) |
|---|
| Beneil Dariush | $17 | 5' 10" | 72" | 1.26 | 3.37 |
| Charles Oliveira | $14 | 5' 10" | 74" | 0.28 | 3.97 |
Though the title fight -- by the rulebook -- has to come last, this is the fight this card was built around.
Beneil Dariush will be undeniable for a lightweight title shot on a nine-fight winning streak that would include
Charles Oliveira on Saturday. Of course, Oliveira challenged for this belt last fall, losing to current champion Islam Makhachev.
In this battle of skilled, well-rounded titans where both can truly do it all, the difference for me is defensive. Oliveira was dropped or in trouble in all four of his lightweight title bouts, coming from behind to win three of them. Dariush, piling up wins of his own, has a much better striking (58%) and takedown (80%) defense.
Oliveira had the benefit -- in all three title fights prior to Makhachev -- of attacking one-dimensional fighters. Justin Gaethje, Dustin Poirier, and Michael Chandler have all been submitted by others at this level. Dariush, since making the leap later into his career, hasn't.
I trust the fighter that minds his weapons more here. Charles allowed 73% of significant strikes and 66% of takedowns to land on him against Islam Makhachev. That's too careless to win these high-level fights. Plus, the motivation edge for Dariush -- never awarded a title shot -- is palpable.
Betting Verdict: I'm right in line with Dariush's ML and the -260 odds this fight finishes early. I wish I had more betting value on a fight this good, but it's roughly what I expect.
DFS Verdict: Oliveira ($14) will likely be the most popular underdog on the card given his well-known, car-crash style, but Dariush ($17) would be perfect-lineup bound if he's the one that comes out on the winning side.
Amanda Nunes (-340) vs. Irene Aldana (+260)
Women's Bantamweight (135 pounds; Five-Round Championship)
| Fighter | FanDuel
Salary | Height | Reach | Striking
Success
Rate (SSR) | FanDuel
Points Per Minute
(excl. bonuses) |
|---|
| Amanda Nunes | $23 | 5' 8" | 69" | 1.65 | 3.95 |
| Irene Aldana | $13 | 5' 9" | 68" | -0.32 | 3.41 |
This week's key number is 17.6%.
That's how much of
Irene Aldana's last fight was left before flailing kicks from her back, and one happened to connect to Macy Chiasson's liver in one of the most stoppages I've seen. That ended up earning Aldana this title shot on short notice after Julianna Pena suffered an injury before a third -- and final -- bout with
Amanda Nunes.
Because three others from Mexico have won UFC titles in the past 365 days, Aldana is a
popular upset pick, but Nunes truly just needs to be 17.6% better than Chiasson to defend this belt again. On top of nearly losing to her, Aldana was bludgeoned by Holly Holm for 144 significant strikes and 5 takedowns in a rout.
Nunes was razor-sharp in the rematch against Pena. She landed 55% of her significant strikes with a +25 differential, defended 62%, and she landed 6 of 8 takedown attempts. Other than a few decent submission attempts, Pena was battered in Dallas last July.
Stylistically, Pena and Aldana aren't alike, but Pena's grappling was able to wear down a stunned Nunes. At 35 years old, Aldana's expected plan is to box Nunes' +1.65 SSR and mammoth 1.08% knockdown rate for this division. I'm all for picking upsets of dominant champions -- and have -- but good luck with that.
Betting Verdict: I've made manual adjustments to Aldana's 81% takedown D, which was just 65% against Holm. Projecting her in the 60s, Nunes is flashing around -400 for me. I see value even at this huge number.
DFS Verdict: Nunes ($23) might be less popular than you'd expect given Aldana's upset chatter. With five rounds to work, she could be an MVP candidate worth considering. She rebounded to 148 FanDuel points against Pena -- in a decision.
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